Tariffs, Trade Wars & Turbulence: What the Latest Means for UK SMEs

What's going on?

If you’ve been watching the news or even just your cost of importing parts or raw materials, you’ll know that things are getting… spicy.

The Dollar has taken a knock, the Pound is holding strong (for now), and the Euro is nervously watching from the sidelines. This is no ordinary market flutter — it’s the prelude to what’s being dubbed “Liberation Day,” thanks to the Trump administration’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs.

So, what does it mean for you, the UK business owner? Let’s break it down.

The Tariff Trouble: What’s Triggered It?

Over the weekend, Donald Trump confirmed the US will impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries, effective 2nd April. That includes the UK, EU, Canada — the lot.

Markets reacted quickly and nervously. The US Dollar index slipped for the third day running, while Sterling held relatively firm and even gained ground on the Dollar and Euro.

Tariffs are set to hit EU car exports first, with a flat 25% on any vehicle not made in the USA. The EU has already promised retaliation.

So, we’ve got:

• A potential full-blown trade war brewing.
• Worries about global inflation returning.
• Investors pulling back from risk.
• UK and EU exporters in the crosshairs.

How Currency Is Moving – And Why It Matters

• USD: Investors are ditching the Dollar. Why? Because tariffs risk economic growth and may force the Fed to hold off further rate hikes. The greenback has lost ground against both the Yen and Sterling.
• GBP: The Pound is surprisingly stable. Prime Minister Starmer’s “productive talks” with Trump didn’t prevent the tariff threat, but Sterling has remained above 1.29 against the Dollar and 1.19 against the Euro.
• EUR: The Euro has crept up slightly — mostly because the Dollar is wobbling. But with Germany heavily reliant on car exports to the US, this trade standoff could hit the Eurozone economy hard. To add fuel to the fire, the ECB just cut interest rates by 25bps, and may need to go further.

What Does This Mean for UK SME Owners?

If you’re importing goods priced in USD or exporting to Europe, the FX markets are going to start affecting your margins — if they haven’t already.

Let’s take a couple of examples:

• Importer of electronics or components from China or the US: The weakening Dollar might look helpful — goods priced in USD cost less in GBP. But beware: tariffs could push base prices up.
• Exporter of UK-made machinery to Germany: The Euro’s wobble could make your goods relatively more expensive in Europe, even before EU retaliation hits confidence and demand.

Don’t Panic — But Do Prepare

This isn’t a time to bury your head in the sand. You don’t need to be a currency trader to manage FX risk — but you do need to be aware.

Here are a few practical steps to consider:

• Review your foreign currency exposure: Which contracts, invoices or suppliers are USD or EUR-denominated?
• Talk to your bank or FX provider: Ask them about forward contracts or hedging tools.
• Scenario test your pricing: How sensitive are your margins if GBPUSD hits 1.25 or EURGBP shifts to 1.10?
• Watch out for knock-on effects: Global inflation, slower growth, tighter credit — it all filters down to SME trading conditions.

The Bigger Picture

We’re heading into a volatile Q2. The FTSE 100 dropped nearly 1% on Monday, and financial stocks are feeling the squeeze. Risk appetite is down. This isn’t just a blip — it’s policy-driven turbulence, and it could persist well into summer.

UK SMEs — especially those in manufacturing, import/export, or with international supply chains — should keep close tabs on currency movements and trade policy headlines.

Self-Test: What Should You Be Asking Yourself?

1. How much of my revenue or cost base is exposed to USD or EUR currency movements?
2. Have I reviewed my pricing strategy in light of recent FX volatility?
3. Am I using any FX tools to hedge risk, or am I leaving it to chance?
4. What would a 5–10% swing in either direction do to my cash flow or profitability?

Final Thoughts

It’s tempting to assume that trade wars and currency swings are for the “big boys” to worry about. But for many SMEs, this sort of disruption can mean the difference between hitting your profit targets or missing them entirely.

At Branta, we help businesses like yours navigate financial uncertainty, structure for resilience, and plan for sustainable growth — even in volatile conditions.

If you’d like a no-obligation chat about your FX exposure, debt refinancing options or M&A strategy, give us a ring. We speak fluent SME.